AI is coming for white-collar jobs. The question is whether anyone is going to do anything about it before the economy figures it out the hard way. In this episode, Igor shares a prediction he came across that stopped him cold. A blogger’s model of what 2028 might look like when the jobs that underpin the entire banking system start disappearing en masse. And the only lever he sees governments reaching for before it all goes sideways.
[00:53] When the Safest Jobs Become the Biggest Risk
- AI super agents are already displacing workers at large companies, which are simultaneously firing people and pouring money into training proprietary AI models and robots.
- White-collar jobs have historically been the most bankable, literally. Banks build their mortgage portfolios on the assumption that these workers are stable and reliable borrowers.
- If AI eliminates enough of those jobs fast enough, the people who can no longer pay their mortgages could trigger a banking crisis that makes previous crashes look manageable.
- A blogger’s 2028 economic model predicts exactly this scenario, a mass white-collar displacement that cascades into a market crash through the mortgage system.
- The speed of AI adoption is outpacing any policy response, which means the window to get ahead of it is narrowing fast.
[02:03] The AI Tax Nobody Has Figured Out Yet
- The only credible government lever Igor sees is a punitive tax on AI replacing human workers, designed to make automation more expensive than employment.
- The mechanics are unclear, but the intent would be to disincentivize mass layoffs by making the cost of AI replacement comparable to or higher than the cost of keeping people on payroll.
- If implemented effectively, it would preserve employment not through regulation of AI itself but through the economics of using it at scale.
- This is speculative, Igor acknowledges it openly. But it is the only policy pathway he sees that could meaningfully slow corporate-driven displacement before it reaches a tipping point.
- Whether governments move fast enough, or at all, is the open question that may define the next decade of economic life.
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